Equity markets: Beyond the escalation, selection, rotation and structural trends matter
The escalation in the Middle East has temporarily unsettled stock markets, but beyond the headlines, fundamental and structural trends remain decisive for investors. While US and European equity markets are broadly neutral over the coming months, other
War in the Middle East – Energy shock slows, but does not stop the recovery
In the wake of the Iran war, the risk of energy shortages is increasing. Oil and gas prices have already risen significantly, clouding the economic outlook. “The new energy shock is slowing Europe’s economic recovery, but it will not bring it to an end,”
Between War and Recovery – The Situation on Financial Markets
The war in the Middle East is dominating headlines and financial markets alike. However, new geopolitical risks are being counterbalanced by a degree of economic stabilisation.
The Petrodollar system is showing cracks
The war with Iran could ultimately prove more costly for the United States than initially expected. Not primarily because of rising oil prices, inflationary pressures or volatility in equity markets, but because one of the structural pillars of U.S.
AI versus Wall Street
With “Claude Opus 4.6”, AI is pushing deep into the core business of analysts and banks – right up to Bloomberg terminals. Shares in financial research firms are sliding. Is the financial sector really facing disruption, or merely the next fee model?
US Treasuries: The big exit that isn’t really one
China’s much-cited exit from US government bonds regularly causes a stir. But a closer look reveals that there is no sign of an abrupt withdrawal or even a global exodus from the US Treasury market.
ELTIFs: Revenue Potential in the Retail Client Business
ELTIFs are regarded as forward-looking investment vehicles for long-term investments. Numerous new funds are driving the growth of an asset class that offers opportunities for both banks and clients. Nevertheless, many banks remain hesitant to enter the
Crisis Rhetoric Meets Investability: A Sober Look at Germany
If there were an opposite of artificial intelligence, it might well be the German economy. While AI is credited with almost miraculous potential, sentiment toward Germany has shifted decisively into shades of black and dark grey. “Investors, however,
Deceptive Calm: Why Low Volatility Is No All-Clear Signal
Financial markets currently appear relaxed – perhaps too relaxed. While geopolitical storms are gathering and an open confrontation between the US government and the central bank is unfolding, equities, bonds and currencies remain remarkably calm.
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