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Energy-dependent economies are currently suffering a double blow: rising oil prices are putting them under significant pressure, while their currencies are depreciating at the same time. “The energy crisis is therefore turning into a currency crisis,” comments Thorsten Fischer, Managing Director and Head of Portfolio Management at Moventum AM. Energy independence is thus becoming a strategic asset that investors should pay attention to.

Since the beginning of the war with Iran, a clear pattern has emerged in foreign exchange markets: among the biggest losers are economies with a high dependence on energy imports. Currencies such as the Egyptian pound, the South Korean won, the Thai baht and the Philippine peso have lost significant value.

The underlying mechanism is as simple as it is far-reaching: rising oil prices drive up import bills. In its latest economic outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that commodity-importing emerging and developing economies in particular are coming under considerable pressure.

This creates a whole bundle of risks for the affected economies: rising trade deficits, falling foreign exchange reserves, increasing inflationary pressure and growing strain on public finances. The situation is further exacerbated by government subsidies for energy prices, with which governments seek to cushion social and economic disruption.

The situation is now being further fuelled by a new energy-policy landscape: “While the United States in the 1970s itself suffered from rising energy import costs, today, as a net exporter of energy, it partially benefits from higher prices,” explains Fischer. This structural shift tends to strengthen the US dollar.

This, in turn, increases the pressure on energy-dependent economies even further, as they have to pay for oil in dollars, making oil imports more expensive. For many countries, this creates a double burden which, according to the IMF, is lowering their growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027.

“Against this backdrop, the energy transition is gaining a new strategic dimension,” explains Fischer. Technologies such as wind and solar power, nuclear energy, battery storage and electric mobility are no longer merely instruments of climate policy. They are increasingly becoming key factors of economic resilience. It is no longer just about reducing CO2 emissions; it is about independence.

According to Fischer, this has far-reaching implications for investors: “Energy dependence is increasingly becoming a direct risk for currencies and inflation.” Economies with a high dependence on imports could become structurally more vulnerable to capital outflows and depreciation dynamics. At the same time, countries with energy self-sufficiency, raw material reserves or technological leadership in clean energy stand to benefit.

According to Fischer, this points to a tectonic shift in global capital markets. “If higher energy prices persist over the longer term, the decisive dividing line in the future may be less between developed and emerging markets — and increasingly between energy dependence and energy sovereignty.”