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The old-world order is breaking down. Led by the United States, which no longer seeks to act as a de-escalating global policeman or neutral referee but is instead setting new standards in escalation, crises are escalating more quickly into conflicts, and conflicts more rapidly into open wars. One escalation follows the next, with no end in sight. “It’s a difficult time for investors – and a new reality,” says Thorsten Fischer, Managing Director and Head of Portfolio Management at Moventum AM.

Recent developments in the Middle East mark a dramatic turning point. Israel has deemed Iran’s nuclear programme to have passed the point of no return and has launched a massive aerial offensive against Iranian nuclear facilities and leading scientists. The targeted killings of several high-ranking figures have shattered an already fragile balance. Iran responded immediately by launching retaliatory drone strikes.

“In the midst of this geopolitical earthquake, the markets are also starting to wobble,” says Fischer. The oil price briefly surged by 14 percent – the largest one-day increase in over five years. Gold rose to 3,450 US dollars, while equities and cryptocurrencies came under pressure. And the oil price is a key indicator: should it rise above 100 US dollars and remain there, a surge in inflation and a shift in interest rate policy are likely. “Interest rate cuts could be delayed or abandoned entirely – with tangible consequences for the economy, credit markets, and investor strategies,” Fischer explains.

And so investors must acknowledge: the world has shifted into permanent crisis mode. “In this environment, the rule is: capital preservation takes priority. Seizing opportunities is secondary,” Fischer says.

What does this mean in concrete terms?

1. Diversification: Overweight positions in specific regions – such as the US or the Middle East – should be critically reassessed. Broad diversification across asset classes and countries is essential.

2. Interest rate trends: If the oil price drives inflation, interest rate cuts may be postponed or not occur at all. This negatively impacts growth stocks, while banks and value stocks may offer upward potential.

3. Inflation-sensitive assets: Gold, commodities, energy stocks and inflation-linked bonds become more important in such times – they can help stabilise a portfolio when other markets fluctuate.

4. Behaviour: Not every headline justifies knee-jerk reactions. Those who act calmly and based on data are better off than those who panic.

5. Long-term strategy: Geopolitical shocks alter perspectives in the short term, but rarely the fundamental, long-term market mechanisms. Those with a sound strategy and a long-term investment horizon should consider rebalancing rather than making hasty reallocations.

“In any case, the era of clear order is over,” Fischer concludes. The task now is to navigate a multipolar, unstable world. “To succeed in this new reality, what’s needed is long-term thinking, data-driven and calm decision-making, a robust portfolio – and the courage to rely on substance over speculation.”