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Global uncertainty is growing – and it has a source: the United States. Under President Donald Trump, the economy and its reindustrialisation have become a matter of national security, prompting tariffs, investment and export restrictions in the name of safeguarding American interests. This is fuelling uncertainty worldwide – and reshaping markets, capital flows, and investment opportunities. “We are witnessing the beginning of a new investment cycle driven by security concerns. Anyone investing capital today must think geopolitically,” explains Thorsten Fischer, Managing Director and Head of Portfolio Management at Moventum AM.

The recent meeting of the International Monetary Fund revolved around one key concept dominating the current economic debate: uncertainty. However, this does not merely refer to cyclical or investment risks, but rather to a deeper systemic uncertainty – a state in which not only individual market participants bear risks, but the economic system itself loses stability.

The driving force behind this development is, above all, US policy. “America is ramping up economically and increasingly shifting into a wartime economy mode,” says Fischer. The US President’s primary goal is the country’s reindustrialisation. Major financial institutions – led by JP Morgan – are aligning with this approach. The bank is planning investments of up to USD 1.5 trillion in projects designed to strengthen America’s economic resilience. Statements by CEO Jamie Dimon suggest close coordination with Washington, and observers expect other major banks to follow suit.

This strategic reorientation of US industrial policy focuses on several key sectors: in energy and raw materials, efforts are aimed at rebuilding oil refining capacity and securing critical minerals. In the pharmaceutical sector, production is being brought back to US plants – a trend mirrored in mechanical engineering and mining. “This is an area that has been neglected until now,” says Fischer. In addition, the US aims to establish an autonomous semiconductor manufacturing capability, including a fully integrated supply chain. Strategic alliances – such as the recent partnership with Australia – are also being forged to secure the country’s raw material needs and reduce dependence on China.

However, it remains unclear how this ambitious programme can be financed, despite the investment commitments of JP Morgan and others. Typically, the US Treasury would issue government bonds. “Yet domestic banks already hold a disproportionately large share of US Treasuries, which limits the scope for new lending programmes,” Fischer notes. The Treasury will therefore need to tap into new sources of capital. Greater involvement from foreign investors is conceivable – but remains highly sensitive in the current political climate.

How should investors position themselves in this environment? “A new guiding principle is emerging for investors,” Fischer explains. “Economic security” will be the investment theme of the 2030s. The state will become the largest client in a sweeping reindustrialisation effort. The main beneficiaries will be companies in energy infrastructure, semiconductor production, speciality chemicals, mining, and the defence and raw materials industries.

Yet this new security paradigm comes at a cost. The immense financing needs are driving public debt, which could lead to structurally higher yields over the long term. “A selective, strategically oriented investment approach will therefore be essential,” says Fischer. Over the long term, opportunities will emerge in hard assets and ‘Made in America’ themes. “In the short term, however, interest rate and refinancing risks must be carefully managed.”