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The economic situation in the major economies remains relatively solid. At the same time, geopolitical tensions, higher interest rates and structural bottlenecks are reshaping capital markets – making a straightforward continuation of the broad equity rally unlikely. “Potential winners now need to be identified more carefully,” says Thorsten Fischer, Managing Director and Head of Portfolio Management at Moventum AM. Opportunities are emerging primarily where energy, commodities, AI infrastructure and regional shifts intersect.

Equity markets in the US and Europe remain fundamentally supported. In the US, strong corporate earnings, stable economic data and the structural AI investment cycle are providing tailwinds; in Europe, moderate valuations, fiscal stimulus and robust earnings are having a stabilising effect. At the same time, the heightened geopolitical environment argues against a simple continuation of the index rally seen so far.

“Higher inflation expectations, rising yields and geopolitical risks point to a market phase that is likely to be characterised more strongly by rotation and clearer selectivity,” explains Fischer. For investors, it is increasingly not the broad movement of indices that matters, but the ability to distinguish between structural winners and losers.

A number of niches currently remain particularly interesting, where structural demand meets geopolitical scarcity. Industrial metals are benefiting from electrification, the expansion of data centres, grid investments and global infrastructure programmes. At the same time, fragmented supply chains, higher transport costs and geopolitical tensions are exacerbating supply risks, thereby creating scope for rising revenues among suppliers. Latin America is a key focus as a resource-rich region, particularly due to copper, aluminium and other strategic intermediate products.

In addition to its commodity profile, parts of Latin America also offer attractive valuation levels. “Brazil is gaining support from falling inflation and the start of an interest-rate cutting cycle,” says Fischer. “Mexico is regarded as a structural beneficiary of nearshoring.” The country is benefiting from the reorganisation of global supply chains and their increasing concentration in North America.

The same applies to Eastern Europe. The region is showing robust fundamentals, is supported by reindustrialisation, EU capital flows and attractive valuations, and is moving more strongly into focus among investors as a destination for production relocation and supply chain resilience. “Poland in particular is consolidating its role as a leading market in Central and Eastern Europe,” says Fischer. Political risks must, however, be taken into account on both sides of the Atlantic – especially Brazil’s presidential elections in 2026.

Another structural theme is energy infrastructure. The expansion of AI, cloud computing, robotics, data centres and industrial electrification is increasing global demand for power grids, storage, grid stabilisation and intelligent supply technology. In Europe, this momentum is being intensified by the pursuit of strategic autonomy, defence capability and energy independence from abroad.

In the technology sector, the focus is also shifting away from pure AI euphoria towards the real monetisation of the value chain. Hardware-related segments such as semiconductors, AI infrastructure, memory chips, industrial automation, robotics and digital productivity solutions remain in demand. At the same time, market concentration is increasing, as a large share of performance is being driven by a small number of stocks from the US, Taiwan and South Korea.

“The global AI and infrastructure cycle has triggered massive capital flows into these segments and has made Taiwan and South Korea key drivers of the entire asset class,” explains Fischer. As a result, the dependence of emerging markets on a small number of technology and hardware narratives is increasing. The market structure therefore partly resembles that of the US, where only a few mega-caps and AI stocks also account for a significant share of performance. “Overall,” Fischer concludes, “attractive parts of the market can currently be found where structural scarcity, technological transformation and geopolitical realignment converge.”