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Currently, markets are rising almost in unison, with little differentiation between industries, regions, and the quality of individual stocks. “However, in the long term, this differentiation will re-emerge,” says Carsten Gerlinger, Managing Director and Head of Asset Management at Moventum AM. “And some industries will be better positioned than others.”

For years, tech stocks have been driving the indices, especially the Big Seven, which have gained significant market capitalization and importance. “These rises are mainly fuelled by the enormous imagination that the topic of Artificial Intelligence triggers,” says Gerlinger. “Similar to the development of the internet, new business models and companies are expected to emerge and capture a large market.”

Until the point is reached where AI-driven companies dominate and grow, the market relies on a temporary crutch: “It is simply assumed that today’s major players will also be big and important in the AI future,” says Gerlinger. “This could indeed happen, but it doesn’t have to.” A look at history rather suggests that a new megatrend often brings forth entirely new companies – and the old ones are then left behind. Netscape or AOL may serve as examples.

“The expectation that old companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft & Co. will benefit from the AI trend raises doubts about the strength of this upheaval,” says Gerlinger. “Anyone taking the market seriously can only see AI as a sub-trend of the larger trend towards digitalization.” And this digitalization brings forth very different winners. “Here too, suppliers of the AI trend, like Nvidia, are at the forefront,” says Gerlinger.

“However, commodities and commodity stocks have more future potential and lower valuations.” Although prices have been subdued due to weak economic prospects, or even suppressed. “The demand for industrial metals, particularly copper, will rise sharply as digitalization progresses.” Since little investment has recently been made in new capacities across almost all areas of raw material production, increasing demand will first lead to a price surge before capacities are adjusted. “Commodity stocks will undoubtedly be among the beneficiaries,” says Gerlinger.

A completely different, much longer-lasting, perhaps never-ending trend is the healthcare sector and the concern for it. Healing diseases and alleviating pain and suffering is a deeply human need. “This ensures that spending in this area will continue to rise,” says Gerlinger. “And even if today’s high-end medicine eventually becomes standard: Research will continue, prescriptions will be written, and good money will be made.” And this is more or less independent of the economic situation, making the healthcare sector a relatively defensive investment that can generate growth even in difficult times.