News

Over the past three months, the economic situation in the United States has turned out somewhat better than feared, while in Europe it has been somewhat worse than hoped. On this side of the Atlantic, government programmes are supporting economic activity; on the other side, the services sector remains robust. Overall, the situation is not bad. “However, political risks remain substantial,” comments Thorsten Fischer, Managing Director and Head of Portfolio Management at Moventum AM. This creates opportunities for investors in gold and selected equities.

The US economy has proved resilient in the third quarter. According to the Atlanta Fed, annualised GDP growth is running at around three per cent. “That’s solid, but nothing spectacular,” says Fischer. While US service providers are expanding, the industrial sector is contracting. The purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing has been stuck below the growth threshold for half a year now.

The weakening of the labour market is particularly evident: only 22,000 new jobs were created in August, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3 per cent. For the first time since the pandemic, the number of jobseekers exceeds the number of vacancies. “The excess demand for labour is visibly evaporating,” explains Fischer. “As a result, the labour market is losing its function as a buffer against economic slowdowns.” The subsequent downward revision by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics of 911,000 jobs for the period from April 2024 to March 2025 is also a strong signal that the US labour market looks even gloomier for the full year.

At the same time, US tariff policy is weighing on business sentiment. “Tariffs averaging 14 to 18 per cent were last seen in the 1930s,” notes Fischer. In the US–China trade conflict, decisions are due from mid-November: if no agreement is reached, there is a risk of a return to drastically higher tariffs, with consequences for prices, profit margins and investment decisions.

Overall, says Fischer, the environment in the United States resembles a “light stagflation” scenario. In plain terms: “Below-average growth alongside a rising unemployment rate, though a recession is not our base case.”

In Europe, by contrast, a tentative stabilisation is emerging. Purchasing managers’ indices rose in August to a 15-month high. Spain and Italy have fiscal leeway which they are using to stimulate growth. Another potential driver is Germany, where the corporate tax package adopted in July, together with special programmes for defence and infrastructure, is expected to boost investment.

Political risks, however, also dominate in the Old World. In addition to US trade policy, there is growing uncertainty in France, where the previous government fell over its austerity package and the new government faces hardly better prospects. And while interest rate cuts are expected in the United States, no additional stimulus is likely from the European Central Bank in the near term.

Nevertheless, the overall picture offers a number of attractive opportunities for investors. The fundamental drivers of the gold price remain intact – despite its currently high level. Central bank purchases from emerging markets, above all from China, continue to support demand. A weaker dollar, anticipated US interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainty further reinforce gold’s role as a safe haven.

In recent months, the global equity market has been dominated by the US, where new record highs have been reached. However, valuations there are historically high, and the US President remains a constant source of uncertainty. At the same time, the US continues to be the world’s technological leader. “US equities are therefore likely to remain the main driving force,” says Fischer. “However, investors would be well advised to examine current valuations carefully.”

Europe appears more attractively valued. Earnings expectations for 2025 are subdued, but “with a clear valuation discount and fiscal stimulus – particularly from the German programmes – medium- to long-term return opportunities are emerging,” says Fischer. In Europe, he favours smaller companies and value stocks, which could benefit most from fading growth concerns and a narrowing of valuation gaps. “In the US, by contrast, it is hard to find a path that does not involve artificial intelligence and growth – the earnings outlook for 2026 is simply too strong,” Fischer concludes.