News

With a bang, the U.S. Federal Reserve launched the long-awaited interest rate cut cycle, lowering the rate by 50 basis points. At the same time, the "Dot Plot" indicated further rate cuts: two more of 25 basis points each this year and a total of 100 basis points next year. Overall, the reaction on the stock markets was positive. The bond markets reacted more cautiously, as a lot of the rate cut expectations were already priced in.

Meanwhile, support for the global economy came from China. The central bank announced a comprehensive stimulus program with extensive measures to strengthen the economy, including lowering the reserve requirement for banks, easing restrictions in the real estate sector, and reducing interest rates on existing property loans. While the Chinese stock markets reacted enthusiastically to this package, it was barely discussed in Germany, where skepticism toward China remains high.

A stabilization in China would be desirable for Europe and export-oriented Germany. However, the trend continues downward. The Ifo Business Climate Index fell more than expected in September, with downward pressure primarily coming from a worsening assessment of the situation. European purchasing managers' indices also do not bode well, with the manufacturing sector dropping to a yearly low and the previously stable services sector declining more than expected, just slightly above the expansion threshold of 50 points.

Since the markets had anticipated rate cuts, the Bund yield remained stable, closing the week around 2.14 percent. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield even rose by about ten basis points to 3.75 percent. Due to the unexpectedly strong rate cut by the Fed, the short end continued to decline. This development was advantageous for the Moventum portfolios, which are still positioned with shorter duration on the bond side. Corporate bonds, both investment-grade and high-yield, performed better compared to government bonds.

The stock markets benefited from the rate cuts and the stimulus from China and saw gains. Here, Japan, followed by Europe, led the way, while the U.S. made smaller gains. Driven by the growth in China, emerging markets outperformed developed countries. Even though the emerging market equity funds allocated in Moventum portfolios do not have an overweight in China, this development still benefited them. Despite the rate cuts, the performance between value and growth segments remained close and had no adverse effects on the Moventum portfolios. Small caps also showed a market-conforming development. Sector-wise, the overweight in the commodities sector was advantageous, as it significantly increased in response to the Chinese fiscal packages. The growth sectors of communication services and technology also showed an outperformance that benefited the portfolios. In contrast, the healthcare stocks, which are highly weighted in the portfolios, declined. The Moventum portfolios managed to make clear gains over the past two weeks. On the bond side, the shorter duration positioning proved helpful, as did the credit allocations. On the equity side, positive and negative contributions balanced each other out.

The PWM portfolio also participated in the positive development of the stock and bond markets and was able to gain in the past two weeks. Positive performance contributions came from nearly all portfolio components. Credit-heavy bond funds, European equity funds, and the global small-cap fund from Janus Henderson particularly benefited. The equity funds from GQQ Partners and the duration-heavy bond funds struggled. In the alternatives segment, the Aquantum Active Range experienced a decline as expected. Additionally, the impact of the hurricane on the Plenum Cat Bond Dynamic is still to be assessed. The gold price rose, which was reflected in the good performance of HANSAgold.