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Luxemburg, 04 February 2022 – The most severe restrictions due to the pandemic are likely to be lifted across Europe soon, so that Germany’s 3G rule (Geimpft/Genesen/Getestet – vaccinated, recovered or tested) will become history. Price increases, however, which to date are blamed mainly on the consequences of the pandemic, are set to continue. “3G will be followed by 3D: Deglobalisation, Decarbonisation and Demography. And all three are driving prices”, said Carsten Gerlinger, Managing Director and Head of Asset Management at Moventum AM.

Deglobalisation is a movement that started even in pre-pandemic times but gained significant momentum with regional lockdowns and the resulting disruptions to supply chains. “Everyone benefitted from the increasing interdependence within the global economy: states, companies and consumers”, Gerlinger explained. “But states increasingly isolated themselves from each other, with Trump’s rallying cry of ‘America first’ representing just one very shiny facet thereof.”

The pandemic clearly exposed the weaknesses of globalisation, including through supply chain disruptions. “In the future, there will likely be a trend to return outsourced production sites, such as in the case of pharmaceutical products”, Gerlinger pointed out. This will lead to labour in Germany and Europe to become more expensive and the necessity for new production facilities. “All this means additional financial burdens that will be reflected in pricing”, said Gerlinger.

The second D is decarbonisation. “Combating climate change is a megatrend”, Gerlinger added. “Success, however, will come at a high price.” Huge sums will have to be invested in transforming the energy supply, the infrastructure and the entire economy overall. “We will all have to pay for this change”, Gerlinger cautioned.

Finally, demographic development, as the third D, is a trend that has already been observed for several years. “What is certain is that in the coming years the proportion of working people in the population will shrink, while the number of pensioners will increase drastically”, said Gerlinger. “The resulting intensified labour shortage, visible already now, will become even more pronounced.” Competition between companies for qualified workers will increase and wages will rise.

The 3 D’s will therefore lead to rising prices in the coming years and increasingly fuel inflation. “At the same time, another megatrend, technologisation in industry and daily life, is also likely to continue”, Gerlinger highlighted. “Evidently this trend will tend to have a price-reducing effect, but it will not be able to compensate for the consequences of 3D.”

Additional information is available at www.moventum.lu