News

After the unstoppable rises of the previous weeks, the stock markets took a breather, while yields on the government bond markets continued to trend slightly upwards. The further brightening of the global economic climate is likely to have contributed to this, as shown by the global purchasing managers' surveys. The ISM Purchasing Managers' Index for US industry rose surprisingly sharply to 50.3 points, exceeding the expansion threshold of 50 points for the first time in 16 months. The same applies to the services sector, where the corresponding index for the eurozone, for example, remained well above the expansion threshold at 51.5 points.

The US labor market is also proving to be very robust: with 303,000 new jobs created in March, the figure was well above expectations and the unemployment rate fell again. Low fears of unemployment are fueling consumer spending in the US and ensuring stable economic growth, which reinforces our constructive positioning for the current quarter. In this environment, the bond markets began to postpone the start of interest rate cuts in the US further, and it is now no longer ruled out that the ECB could even cut interest rates before the Fed. In Germany, the disinflation trend has continued and the annual rate of inflation fell from 2.6 to 2.4 percent in March, slightly more than expected by the consensus (core inflation: 3.1 to 2.9 percent).

The next ECB meeting will take place this week and there may be new indications as to when the first interest rate cut will take place. In the US, meanwhile, all eyes will be on the inflation figures published in the middle of the week. The continued robust development of the US economy caused the yield on the ten-year US government bond to rise significantly to 4.4%. The ten-year German government bond climbed to 2.4 percent. Meanwhile, lower interest rate sensitivity and falling risk premiums ensured a positive development for investment-grade bonds and high-yield bonds. The Moventum portfolios therefore benefited both from their shorter duration positioning and from their admixtures in the credit segment.

On the equity side, performance was similar in the USA and Europe. The outperformance of the value segment had a negative impact in each case, as growth suffered from the rising interest rate environment. The sector positioning with its high weighting in IT and healthcare also had a negative impact in this environment. However, selectively added value funds were convincing. The Japanese equity market performed below average, suffering from profit-taking. However, we remain constructive here for the second quarter and overweight accordingly. The emerging markets, where the portfolios are broadly diversified, outperformed. The Moventum portfolios were unable to fully escape the negative equity and bond market trends of the past two weeks. However, the price losses on the bond side were significantly lower thanks to the positioning described above and the good performance of the flexible bond funds in particular. On the equity side, the adverse allocation impact of the growth overweight and the underperformance of Japan could not be fully compensated for, even with good fund selection.

The PWM portfolio performed positively in the past two weeks and was able to escape the negative trends on the equity and bond markets. The main driver was the sustained rally in the price of gold, in which we were able to participate thanks to HANSAgold. On the bond side, the funds, most of which are short and credit-heavy, also achieved a positive performance and the funds in the alternatives segment were not affected by the rise in interest rates or the fall in prices on the equity markets. With the Aquantum Active Range, we were even able to benefit from the rising volatility in the US equity market. The mixed funds mostly performed in line with the market, as did the equity funds. Ardtur European Focus benefited from the favorable environment for value stocks and outperformed.

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